Data, scouting, and shot charts
Some time ago, while listening to a conversation on the Drafteados channel with Fabricio Oberto, I came across a very powerful idea.
Oberto explained that in the NBA you don’t defend “a player.”
You defend patterns.
When you face the same opponent several times during the season, scouting becomes a key strategic tool. It’s not just about knowing who is good. It’s about knowing:
- Which direction they prefer to dribble
- From which angle they run the pick-and-roll
- What type of shot they look for in each area
- Where they are actually most efficient
Based on this idea, I decided to create a visual analysis of shot types and dominant areas for NBA players.
Let’s take James Harden (2024/25) as an example:
📍 1️⃣ Dominant shot type by area
It’s not only about where a player shoots. It’s about what kind of shot they take from each area.
- Step-back threes on the perimeter
- Drives and layups in the paint
- Pull-up jumpers from mid-range after gaining an advantage
Defending this is not just about “closing out hard on the three-point line.”
It’s about understanding what decision the player wants to make from each spot on the court.
📍 2️⃣ Shot efficiency density
Here, an important idea appears: volume ≠ efficiency.
The density map shows where the player is actually most effective.
In this case, the paint has the highest efficiency.
This changes defensive priorities:
You don’t always need to take away the most obvious shot.
You need to take away the most efficient one.
📍 3️⃣ Shot volume
Shot volume reveals offensive intention.
Where the player wants to operate
Where they feel comfortable creating advantages
Where the system puts them in favorable situations
Modern defense works by pushing the offensive player 1–2 meters away from their preferred spots.
That small spatial adjustment can significantly reduce efficiency.
🎯 Conclusion
What Oberto described is traditional scouting: video, repetition, experience.
Today, we can add another layer:
- Spatial visualization
- Shot type segmentation
- Combining volume and efficiency
- Probabilistic decision analysis
Defense is no longer just about effort.
It’s risk management.
It’s spatial architecture.
It’s anticipation based on data.
Because in the NBA, it’s not about reacting to what the player does.
It’s about knowing what they want to do… before they do it.
If traditional scouting gives you context, data analysis gives you precision.
And when both are combined, defense stops being intuition and becomes strategy.